Odds to Bet On | Premier League top-six race
Arsenal and Manchester City are expected to finish in the top two of the Premier League this season while Newcastle United, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are expected to battle for the remaining two places in the top four, but one last spot in the top six is open.
Aston Villa are currently sixth, but Brighton & Hove Albion are one point and one place behind, Liverpool is two places and three points behind, and Brentford is three places and four points behind, so Odds To Bet On has compiled Bet 365’s odds on who will occupy that final Europa League place.
Liverpool (4/9 to finish top-six)
Remaining fixtures: Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Tottenham, Fulham, Brentford, Leicester, Aston Villa, Southampton.
Liverpool will go level on points with sixth-placed Villa if they win their game in hand, so they’re favourites to steal their spot come May. The Reds are winless in their last four and have been wildly inconsistent this season, but their home form has been the fifth-best in the league (14 games, 9 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat).
Liverpool has five home games left which they’ll expect to win, so that could be the difference in the race. And with them facing four sides 16th and lower in the table, they do have a great opportunity to finish the season strongly.
Brighton (10/11 to finish top-six)
Remaining fixtures: Chelsea, Man City, Wolves, Man Utd, Everton, Arsenal, Southampton, Aston Villa.
Brighton could go five points clear of seventh place if they won both games in hand, but they have a difficult run. Four of the Seagulls’ next six meetings are against the big six, so they might not pick up many points.
Matches against Wolves, Everton and Southampton are winnable for Brighton, but they have more difficult games than easy ones which is why Liverpool are favourites over them.
Aston Villa (7/1 to finish top-six)
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle, Brentford, Fulham, Man Utd, Wolves, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Brighton.
Aston Villa has won six of their last seven games to move into sixth, but they have a tough run of games with seven of their remaining eight matches coming against top-half clubs.
Newcastle, Brentford, Man Utd, Liverpool and Brighton are in the top seven, so the bookies don’t fancy Villa to reach the Europa League. Unai Emery’s men picked up nine points to those sides in earlier meetings, so they do have a slim chance of doing the impossible.
Brentford (66/1 to finish top-six)
Remaining fixtures: Wolves, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, West Ham, Tottenham, and Man City.
Brentford has a four-point deficit to make up and has played more games than sides above them in the table, so they’re outside bets to reach the Europa League. The Bees are winless in their last four games and have four of the big six to face, so it’s hard to see them going on a run.
Brentford will fancy their chances against Wolves, Forest and West Ham, but they need to pull off a scalp or two. It’s worth noting Thomas Frank’s men have taken points off Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and City this season, so it’s not completely impossible. Just improbable.